I have to point out, right from the start of this post that these are my views based on what I have read from the internet and learnt from the news over the last few weeks.
I am not an educated man, however I am not stupid and therefore whilst my outlook is not based on academic first hand knowledge it is based on common sense, and an open mind to all possibilities and outcomes.
So here we are, a sunny day, the air is crisp and the signs of Spring are well and truly underway.
However a dark cloud is looming over us - Covid-19 or Corona Virus.
Estimates vary depending on what you read and hear, but one thing is for sure, not every one is going to coming out the other side!
China, where it is believed to of all started, by the looks of it, is over the worst - or is it?
A number of things went on in China that we need to point out.
1. They tried to cover up the extent of the virus!
2. They enforced a strict quarantine on the worst affecting areas, which contained (we are led to believe) the virus
3. How do we know that the figures released from China are accurate?
4. China is now a Super Power and is a direct threat to the USA and Europe.
Point 1 - It is now widely known that at the very start of the problem the situation was covered up at a local level, only once it started causing problems did we hear about it. This is fact and is undisputed.
Point 2 - The quarantine was rapid, but this has crippled the economy, not only in China but throughout the rest of the world. China is the centre of the universe these days when it comes to manufacturing goods.
Point 3 - The Chinese are not that squeaky clean when it comes to releasing figures, so anything they say has to be taken with a pinch of salt.
Point 4 - The more cynical may say that this is what China needed to assert their massive might over the rest of the world. They are the power house, we have seen many companies suffering as a result of unavailability of parts which halts their own manufacturing processes. Having put all their eggs in one basket they are now facing the consequences.
One thing is for sure, China has the capacity to bounce back and quickly, where else in the world could they build a fully functioning hospital in 10 days! No where - and this is why they are dangerous!
But what if the immediate lock down has served no purpose but just delayed the problem. I will come back to this point in a minute.
Look at what the British Government is doing, we are not on lock down, their way of thinking is to slow down the progress of the virus and go through a process of "Herd Immunity".
This is where the catching of the virus is slowed down, and that everyone gets it, but at a slower rate, therefore spreading the problem out over a period of time. Over a period of time we become immune and life carries on.
I can see a few flaws to this plan, firstly, I don't think the virus will respect us and slow down it's spread. We are not doing enough to "Social Distance" and I'm afraid to say that there are still lots of people who regard it as not important and it's just the same as getting a bad cold!
This type of apathy is what is going to kill people!
Going down the "Herd Immunity" route will mean, many elderly and venerable people will catch it and potentially die.
There are not enough hospital ICU beds in the UK to cope with the influx of patience. From what I have read and heard, we have approx 4000 ICU beds in the UK - They are estimating that 150,000 are required.
Simple maths says that due to the lack of beds, there will be serious casualties. We will all potentially loose a loved one.
Now for a second, lets look at "Lock Down" - In China they acted swiftly. They did not go down the route of "Herd Immunity" there is no vaccine and they have not eradicated the virus, yet millions of workers are now returning to work.
Many think that there could be a second wave of infections once the "Lock Downs" are lifted, then we will see "Herd Immunity" take place but at a massive cost to life. All they have potentially done is lulled themselves into a false sense of security.
This is the problem of going into "Lock Down" to early. The only thing they have done is bought time.
One thing is for sure, the world is not equipped to deal with this. Of course we will get through this, but at a massive cost to life and the economy.
The winners, will be those who can get back to normal the quickest, and that undoubtedly will be China.
The USA is so slow to react to anything with Trump at the helm who believes
A) He is an expert on viruses and there is nothing to worry about)
B) The Lord will save you!
C) The answer to most problems is simply close all borders and have a burger.
Europe is no better, with conflicting plans of what to do and when, borders open/closed which is a massive joke.
Europe cannot control the migration of people let alone an airborne unseen virus!
The poorer countries of the world where hygiene is not top of their priorities and health care is limited to an aspirin and a shot of penicillin if you are lucky, let alone access to ICU beds!
Without wishing to sound alarmist we are facing a real problem if civilised countries such as Italy are overwhelmed then how on earth is Bangladesh going to cope?
At the moment I feel sorry for two groups of people.
The elderly and those who are venerable, there will be some heartbreak over the coming weeks.
The kids about to sit their exams, my step kids are taking A levels and GCSE's all this uncertainty must be playing on their minds as well as the playground gossip and the access to media via the internet which if they read it, does not paint a rosy picture.
The kids today are not equipped to deal with this type of trauma and disruption, video games of death and destruction is one thing, it's not real, but real life on a normal daily basis is an issue for some of them!
I only hope I am wrong, some how I think we are in for a rough ride. Let's hope we all come out the other side.
Till later............
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